Anchoring electrification, intelligentization and networked automobile industry upgrading and speeding up
With the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, China’s auto industry has also begun to shift from the first half of “electrification” to the second half of “intelligence”. Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said at the 12th China Automobile Forum that Chinese-style modernization cannot be achieved without the support of a powerful automobile country. In the context of the new era, with a focus on future development, China’s auto industry will seize the important period of opportunity for the development of electrification, intelligence and networking, focus on improving the supply chain system of the Industrial chain, and make every effort to accelerate industrial upgrading and high-quality development.
The share of new energy vehicles is expected to be close to 40%
China’s new energy vehicle market trend report shows that in October this year, the penetration rate of China’s new energy vehicles rose to 29.4% month-on-month; from January to October, the cumulative penetration rate of China’s new energy vehicles reached 24.7%, contributing over 80% to the growth of the automotive market .
Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economic Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that when the market share of new energy vehicles exceeds the critical point of 20%, the entire market will enter a stage of rapid development; A qualitative change in the alternative aspects of
According to the non-linear and regular characteristics of the development of my country’s auto market, Wang Qing made a judgment: by 2025, the scale of my country’s new energy vehicle market will reach 12 million, and the market share is expected to be close to 40%.
Wu Tao, General Manager of the Strategic Planning Department of Changan Automobile Co., Ltd., is also very optimistic about the development prospects of new energy vehicles. “Pure electric, as the mainstream power form of new energy, will continue to develop rapidly.” Wu Tao analyzed that the main reason is that the first is policy promotion, the construction of a series of energy supplementary facilities, and the continuous introduction of purchase tax exemption documents will continue to promote The development of pure electricity; the second is the “dual carbon” strategy and the adjustment of China’s energy structure. Pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of new vehicles in 2035. This is the plan and goal clearly put forward by the Chinese auto industry; The cost of new energy vehicle products will drop.
Entering the era of smart car 3.0
According to public data, the national road test mileage has exceeded 5,000 kilometers, and more than 900 test licenses have been issued. High-level intelligent connected vehicles are the first to be used in specific and limited scenarios, and large-scale test demonstrations of carrying people and goods have been carried out. In 2021, the penetration rate of my country’s L2-level assisted driving passenger car new car market will reach 23.5%, and it will increase to 30% in the first half of this year. Breakthroughs have been achieved in innovative technologies such as the new generation of electronic and electrical architectures and automotive operating systems, and some products have entered mass production applications.
“The auto industry will enter the era of smart cars 3.0, which is an era of intelligence.” Wang Weibao, head of Jidu Zhijia, said that the auto industry will enter a state of complete unmanned. In the future, the competition in the entire auto industry will be over. The competition will not be based on power, but more on intelligence, smart driving, and smart cockpit.In the future, the core competitiveness of the entire automobile company will also shift from the development of power chassis to drivingAIAdvanced technology, more powerful algorithms, computing power, including the use of big data, etc.
Wang Weibao believes that in terms of intelligent networking, future cars should have three main features: free movement, natural communication, and self-growth. In terms of free movement, future cars should have high-level intelligent driving capabilities, which can enter point-to-point, end-to-end, and one-click intelligent driving states; Through the screen, gestures, and voice to interact with people more insensibly, and even some active interactions; in terms of self-growth, through intelligence and data-driven, the car should be driven by data and self-learning, so that thousands of people can face each other. status. Under the three main features, the final product will realize the most immersive cockpit and the most relaxed smart driving.
Wu Tao believes that the new car will gradually transform into a “smart car robot” similar to human intelligence and emotion, and will become the next large-scale platform product after computers and smart phones, and will accelerate its integration with energy, technology, information communication, and smart terminals. and other industries are superimposed and integrated.
Li Fanni, chief analyst of S&P Global Automotive, China Automotive Supply Chain and Automotive Technology Forecast, and internet of Vehicles, said that there will be nearly 15 million connected cars in my country in 2021, and will continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9% in the future. It is expected to reach 25 million vehicles per year.
Actively promote supplementary and strong chains
In the process of accelerating the development of automobiles towards new energy and intelligence, although there are still great opportunities for development, the challenges we face cannot be ignored.
Liu Yurui, partner of Deloitte Management Consulting China Strategy and Business Design, said that firstly, emerging technologies are constantly emerging and supported. Whether it is a complete vehicle company or a technology company in the ecological chain, they are all developing in areas including autonomous driving, smart cockpits, chips, and batteries. Focus on investing. The second is the change of consumers. Nowadays, consumers are getting younger and younger, and the post-90s and post-00s have become the main car buying groups. They pursue personalization, ultimate experience, and technological perception, and their demands are very different from those of previous consumers. The third is that more and more cross-border companies have entered this track. Internet companies, ICT companies, and electronic component manufacturing companies have all entered this track to participate in the competition. Fourth, there are more and more “black swan” events, including the epidemic and geopolitics that have brought a lot of trouble.
In the face of challenges, people in the industry have given suggestions. Wu Tao said, “In the face of possible ‘grey rhinos’ or ‘black swans’, OEMs must have risk-avoidance plans, or take them into consideration in their strategies. Enterprises must have their own plans.”
Wu Tao believes that enterprises must do three things well: one is to focus, to focus resources on the most critical and urgently needed core technology and R&D; Business model, cooperation method; the third is talent, which will be the most critical link in the entire closed loop.
Zhu Mingrong, chairman of the Automobile Talent Professional Committee of the China Talent Research Association, suggested that we should actively promote the work of supplementing and strengthening the chain, form production capacity backup and diversified supply plans; actively use industry resources and enterprise resources in the ecological chain, set up special research plans, and supplement Weaknesses in areas such as core technologies and key materials. At the same time, through investment and technical cooperation, etc., we will speed up the breakthrough of core technologies and achieve technological breakthroughs as soon as possible; we will give play to the leading and supporting role of large enterprises, and cooperate deeply with specialized and new enterprises to build a new research and development mechanism and system. In addition, promote the long-term principle of core technology research, deepen research in basic disciplines, and accumulate energy for core technology research. It can cooperate with universities and scientific research institutions to carry out joint research, and form a final joint force through division of labor and collaboration.
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